Amidst a dismal 2-14 campaign and the disappointment of losing Peyton Manning for the year (and perhaps forever), the good folks of the Circle City have had only to take comfort in the prospect of taking Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, a two-game winning streak near season’s end and the improvement of the Indiana Pacers and Hoosiers on the basketball court.

Best of all, though, is the excitement of hosting Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Of course, the Colts would rather themselves have the opportunity play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy in their own building rather than watch Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees (presumably) secure another one for their own franchises.

But it’s not as though Indy is the first team to fall flat on its face the very same year it’s scheduled to be the center of the universe on Super Bowl Sunday. The Dallas Cowboys went into the 2010 season with what they thought were legitimate aspirations to earn a ring at the Jerry Jones Dome before Tony Romo went out with a broken clavicle and Wade Phillips got canned mid-season.

In fact, rare is the occasion that a team gets to play a Super Bowl in its own backyard. Not since 1985, when Joe Montana’s San Francisco 49ers dominated Dan Marino’s Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl XIX, 38-16 at Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California has a team won a title in its home state.

That figures to change at some point down the line, particularly with the proliferation of stadiums with retractable roofs along with the NFL’s recent willingness to play its biggest game in cold weather. That much became clear when the league announced that MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, where the New York Jets and Giants play, would host Super Bowl XLVIII in February of 2014.

MetLife Stadium, mind you, doesn’t sport a retractable roof of any kind.

Granted, none of this can quite adequately quell the sadness among football players and fans alike in Indy. Winning is the only known antidote to such a malaise.

Still, the pageantry of the Super Bowl should lift some spirits in the Hoosier State come February while giving everyone in town a canvas on which to paint in their minds images of Andrew Luck leading the Colts to glory.

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Andrew Luck’s unimpeachable greatness puts the burden of proof squarely on Blackmon’s broad shoulders, and based on the historical performance of players in his position, it can’t be guaranteed that he’ll be a franchise-saving super-stud.

Blackmon’s eight-catch, 186-yard, three-touchdown performance against Luck’s Stanford Cardinal in the Fiesta Bowl capped off an incredible season. Oklahoma State’s star receiver finished with 121 receptions, 1,522 yards and 18 touchdowns en route to his second consecutive Biletnikoff Award.

Blackmon’s staggering college production has made him a near lock to be selected in the Top 10, but it shouldn’t put him anywhere near the Colts’ radar.

Blackmon, like any wide receiver, can’t do it by himself. By it’s nature, the wide receiver position requires some help.

A great wide receiver can be very good on his own, but without a strong quarterback feeding him the ball, there’s an impenetrable ceiling on his greatness.

Take the Detroit Lions‘ Calvin Johnson, for example.

In 2008, with Dan “The Definition of Mediocrity” Orlovsky as his quarterback, Johnson managed an outstanding statistical season. He caught 78 passes for 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns.

In 2011, with Pro Bowl snub Matthew Stafford as his quarterback, Megatron elevated his production and set career-highs in every major receiving category. He grabbed 96 catches for 1,681 yards and 16 scores.

His 2008 production was very good, but only with a star quarterback getting him the ball does that production become other-worldly.

Still, that fact alone can’t completely eliminate Blackmon from consideration for Indianapolis’ top pick. As long as the Colts can find a quarterback with one of their other draft picks, Blackmon will be great.

That’s where things get tricky. Once the book closes on the first round, finding a great quarterback in the NFL draft becomes profoundly difficult.

Of the top ten passers in this NFL season (by quarterback rating), six were drafted in the first round. Of those six, three (Stafford, Eli Manning and Alex Smith) were No. 1 overall selections.

Players like Tom Brady and Tony Romo are exceptions, but they don’t come around very often.

Contrast that with how easy it is to find a wide receiver in the later rounds.

Only three of the top ten NFL receivers (by receiving yards) this season were drafted in the first round. The second-leading receiver in the league, Victor Cruz, wasn’t even drafted!

Of those three first-round studs, only Larry Fitzgerald didn’t play with a quarterback that was a top-ten passer and a first-round pick. The other two, Calvin Johnson and Roddy White, both played alongside quarterbacks that were top-three selections.

With players like Cruz and Steve Smith emerging as stars from the later rounds, it’s a perfectly logical strategy to fill out a receiving corps outside of the first round of the NFL draft.

Knowing that, the only reason that the Colts should take Blackmon is if they believe that he is a slam-dunk, transcendent, once-in-lifetime talent that they simply can’t pass up.

It’s possible he could be that great, but unfortunately for Blackmon, the track record of success for first-round wide receivers is sketchy at best.

In the last 20 drafts, 29 receivers have been selected within the first 10 picks. Three (Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson) developed into superstars. That’s a hit rate of about 10 percent.

Even if we break that group down into only receivers that were selected inside the first five, the hit rate still sits at just 30 percent.

Even if we decide to call Cinicinnati Bengals rookie A.J. Green a superstar, a title he certainly hasn’t earned just yet, the hit rate rises to only 40 percent.

It’s awfully tough to make a bet on the future of a franchise when the odds are less than 50/50.

At this point, it would make sense to look at the success rate of quarterbacks drafted in the Top 10, but from everything I’ve read about Luck, it seems like any comparison would be unfair to him.

Just about every scout on the Internet has Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck as the best quarterback in the draft. Some, including our own Matt Miller, have called him the best draft prospect they’ve ever seen.

This doesn’t sound like a guy who belongs in a comparison that would include JaMarcus Russell and Akili Smith.

Justin Blackmon has been a great college player and he very well may be a great NFL player as well. However, with Luck delivering a near guarantee of excellence at the most important position on the field, Blackmon can’t be the first pick in this draft.

With that in mind, drafting Andrew Luck is only move for the Indianapolis Colts.

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Some receivers had that glimmer of promise, but weren’t quite there yet. Regardless, it is time to look forward to next season to what receivers will either rebound or finally break out in 2012. 

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Draft Stanford’s Andrew Luck or trade it away?

Obviously, the Colts will benefit from either route they take; the issue is which decision will benefit them more? They’re obviously in the need for a quarterback regardless of Peyton Manning’s health; even if he plays in 2012, Indianapolis needs a reliable backup.

To that end, there are some decent free agents available this offseason such as Green Bay’s Matt Flynn, Kansas City’s Kyle Orton and Oakland’s Jason Campbell.

However, are any of those guys worth backing up Peyton Manning or starting for the Colts if Manning goes elsewhere?

No.

Andrew Luck should be—and must be—that guy for Circle City.

If Peyton Manning remains, Indianapolis must draft Luck for the future and mold him. He will then hit the ground running, so to speak, whenever Manning retires and will keep the Colts competitive, at the very least.

Like Aaron Rodgers backing Brett Favre, Steve Young backing Joe Montana and Philip Rivers backing Drew Brees, learning from a legend can only benefit the younger player.

And if Manning does go elsewhere, the Colts need to start over at quarterback anyway.

Luck is good enough to start over Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky right now, and based on how well some rookies did this season—namely Cam Newton and Andy Dalton—Luck has just as much potential.

Now if the Colts do trade away that pick, well, they will miss out on the draft’s best prospect—but Baylor’s Robert Griffin would suffice a few picks down. Plus, trading down this pick would allow them to stock up in 2012 and/or 2013.

So the finality of it all comes down to having Andrew Luck or a few more picks.

In this case, though, Indianapolis must go with quality over quantity—because when you desperately need a young quarterback and that position also has the draft’s best prospect, you draft that player.

Obviously, the NFL Draft is an inexact science, too. It’s a risk to draft a player that you’re supposed to draft, especially when the expectations are high.

Then again, every pick is a risk; so is looking into the free-agent market. The safest and most developmental route is to draft Andrew Luck. He has all the tangibles and intangibles you want in a quarterback, so whether he backs Manning or starts, it’s really a win-win situation for the Colts.

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A once proud and dominating franchise was immediately brought to its knees and humbled.

Many changes are afoot.  The Polians are gone with much speculation as to why.  Caldwell is still here with much speculation as to why.  And Ryan Grigson is here to save the day. 

Here is the way I see some things going down in the near future.

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Owner Jim Irsay and new GM Ryan Grigson have their work cut out for them, but making the decision on No. 18’s future will be a joint venture between Irsay and Manning—Grigson will not be involved.

What the decision means for Manning is not as complicated as for the Colts organization.

The future Hall of Famer would obviously love to play out his contract as a member of the team that drafted him, but Indianapolis has to think of their long-term future.

There are positives and negatives to every decision and severing ties with No. 18 is a franchise altering move.

Is ditching Manning the best decision for the Colts organization?

Pros

The Colts hold the No. 1 overall pick and are expected to draft Stanford’s Andrew Luck. The redshirt junior quarterback prospect is largely considered the best and most complete prospect since Manning himself.

In fact, he has more hype and no legitimate competition for the No. 1 spot the way Peyton did in 1998.

Luck has been atop the draft board for two years running, and he’s the best chance the Colts will have at recreating the type of success they had with Peyton.

It won’t be easy and it won’t be overnight, but in the long run it is the best option for Indianapolis.

The Colts will also rid themselves of their financial ties to Peyton. With the new rookie wage scale, playing with Luck is a much more affordable situation than playing with Peyton for the next few years.

This team isn’t ready to be competitive even with No. 18 under center. Everybody, fans and players alike, want to win, but it simply isn’t realistic to think that way.

With the money not invested in Peyton, the Colts won’t be living in fear of another injury and they can go out and add more players to help solidify the roster.

Colts players will want Peyton back, but in the long run it isn’t the best call for this franchise.

Cons

He’s Peyton freaking Manning. Not only is he one of the best in the league; he’s one of the best to ever lace up a pair of cleats.

Peyton’s No. 18 will be retired by the Colts, his Super Bowl XLI banner will hang from the rafters of wherever the Colts call home and his bust will reside in Canton with the likes of Joe Montana, Johnny Unitas and John Elway.

Peyton’s health is obviously still in question, but he could go to a better team and instantly make them a contender.

And, worst-case scenario, he goes to an AFC team and possibly tangles with the Colts in the near future.

Aside from Peyton, the Colts would be putting the franchise in the hands of a rookie. In Peyton’s rookie year, the Colts went 3-13.

Again, success won’t come easy and it won’t come overnight.

Final Verdict

Unless the Colts plan to keep Peyton and trade the No. 1 overall pick, they’re going to have to sever ties with the superstar.

It isn’t feasible for them to sink upwards of $50 million into a position where only one player can play when the rest of the roster has so many other holes.

Neither Peyton nor Luck are going to help their porous defense, but the money and/or picks they can save/acquire can.

If the Colts are hellbent on drafting Andrew Luck they need to move on from Peyton Manning.

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Well here’s a news flash for all of those people, that terrible defense and questionable offensive line has been that way for almost all of Manning’s career. It never stopped him from leading his team to the playoffs for nine straight years, an NFL record seven consecutive seasons with at least 12 wins and a Super Bowl. 

As a passionate Colts’ fan and overzealous Manning supporter (to put it lightly), I have grown accustomed to my version of Superman leading Indy to the playoffs year in and year out. He has always been there and because of that, it was easy to look past this injury and speculate when he will return to the field.

After the first surgery, I told everyone he will be ready for the start of the season. After the second surgery, I confidently speculated that he would strap on his blue tights and with the “S” on his chest return to lead the Colts over the New England Patriots in a Week 13 matchup that would have rivaled Mayweather vs. Pacquiao.

Well, just like that super-fight, it never happened and for the first time in my life, I spent an entire year without No. 18 being part of my Sunday ritual.

During the whole ordeal, never once did I even consider the fact that Peyton (we are on first name basis) would not return to the field at some point. As the season wore on and the talk of holding the first overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft came into focus, the thought of Manning changing teams obviously crossed my mind. But not once, did the thought of him never playing again hit me.

Well, after hearing Jim Irsay and Peyton’s father, Archie Manning slap aside questions of Andrew Luck, the 2012 NFL draft, etc. and reiterated that Manning’s health is the top priority, I’m officially worried.

While everyone in the sports world is busy speculating what the Colts should do with the first overall pick and who should be their starter in 2012, very few are considering the possibility that we have seen that last of the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL. Yeah, I said it!

As I did all year long, I’m fighting the thought of having seen the last of the Colts’ leader. I blindly believe that he will overcome anything that stands in his way and return to lead my Colts to glory.

With that said, if I have seen the last of my favourite player, and the Peyton Manning injury is career-ending, I will be forever grateful that I was able to witness the entire career of one of the greatest players that has ever donned an NFL jersey.

Thanks, Peyton.

Sincerely,

The best friend you never new you had.

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One thing seems quite clear: Manning will not be traded.

Not because Colts Owner Jim Irsay says he won’t trade Manning, (owners change their minds all the time; see the Bengals and Carson Palmer) but because it would kill the Colts’ salary cap to trade their longtime franchise player.

The Cardinals and Jets have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Manning, who ostensibly would replace Kevin Kolb in Arizona or Mark Sanchez in New York.  

But the Colts can’t trade Manning until March 13. So to do it would require them to pick up the $28 million bonus on March 8, and then take a $38 million hit against their salary cap to trade him.

They reportedly have less than $10 million in projected space (with Manning counting $17 million), so trading him would push them about $11 million over, and make it even harder to sign some of their 19 free agents.  

The Colts could try to get Manning to agree to a lesser bonus or a completely revamped contract before March 8, but he has little reason to do that other than loyalty.

And the quarterback probably would require a no-trade clause in return. Manning certainly would prefer to find a contending team he likes rather than be foisted upon a club without having any input.   

Even if the Colts were thinking of paying Manning the $28 million in order to trade him, what kind of market would there be for a 36-year-old with a creaky neck?

They would be very lucky if some team offered up a first-rounder (the Jets ended up with a third-round pick for a 38-year-old Brett Favre in 2008).

Paying Manning just to trade him and take a $38 million cap hit would mean the Colts would have to cut Dwight Freeney ($14 million salary), and probably a few other players. They would basically have to gut what’s left of the team and start fresh.

That would then raise the specter of Andrew Luck pulling a John Elway—becoming yet another Stanford No. 1 overall pick to spurn the Colts. And, unlike Eli Manning’s ill-advised prima donna play against the Chargers in 2004, Luck would have a pretty fair argument for not wanting to go to a team that had just let most of its best players go and had no offensive line to speak of.

Take all of that into account, and there really is not a scenario in which the Colts realistically can trade Manning, even if Irsay wanted to.

If Manning fails his physical and does not want to redo the deal, the Colts would have three choices: (1) Pay him the $28 million and hope like heck they can fix his neck, (2) cut him to avoid paying it, or (3) ask him to push the bonus date back.  

The first decision would result in a $17 million cap number ($7.4 million salary, $9.6 million in bonus proration) and no guarantee Manning would be able to earn the money, while handcuffing the franchise to $29 million more in bonus proration beyond 2012.

The second choice would result in just a $10.4 million hit ($16 million in prorated signing bonus minus a $5.6 million credit on the option bonus, which started counting against the cap last year) that would net the team $6.6 million in cap space. Of course, that would also leave Manning free to test free agency.

There is a debate about whether the third option is possible under his current contract, but if Manning were amenable to pushing the date back, they should be able to redo the contract to allow it (The NFLPA is not going to argue if that’s what Manning wants).

If he’s not healthy and won’t redo his deal or postpone the bonus, it would be silly of the Colts to pay him $35.4 million in bonus and salary on the gamble that he will be healthy at some point.

But if Manning passes his physical in early March, the team will have to think long and hard about whether to bring him back.

The Colts would be on the hook for $29 million in future proration charges (not counting salaries), so they really would be committing to him for three more years before they could realistically extricate themselves.

Meanwhile, assuming Manning was healthy enough to play and they drafted Luck, Luck would be sitting on the bench.

Plus, Manning’s cap hits would increase by a million every year, up to $20 million in 2015—very unwieldy figures that would prevent the team from building or even sustaining in other areas.

The Colts can’t feasibly trade Manning, so—even if he is healthy—their best options are to (1) get him to agree to a new contract with more manageable numbers, or (2) simply let him go and start the Luck-era this year.

As hard as it might be for Irsay, the best thing for his team is probably just to let Manning go and hope the usually classy QB wishes the Colts good Luck.

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Brett Favre had the perfect exit but didn’t want to take it and extended his career beyond the Packers. After injuries, Joe Montana became expendable to Steve Young. 

There was a very real hope that Peyton Manning would go out how the truly great should always leave. It is rare to see a man stay with one team and bow out on their terms and to do it gracefully.

Thanks to awful play, injury to Manning and the No. 1 pick in the draft, Manning’s departure will be something quite awful. 

You can call it ridiculous fortune or coincidence, but the Colts are certainly a lucky franchise. If we believe that Andrew Luck is the most NFL-ready quarterback in recent memory, the Colts will move seamlessly from one star QB to the next. 

You just can’t ask for blind, dumb luck. That fortune does have a cost. In a Yahoo! Sports radio interview, Archie Manning divulged to host Craig Shemon that there is a very real possibility that his son Peyton Manning may not play next year due to injury.

If true, there is no way that the Colts can continue on with Peyton Manning as their presumptive starting quarterback. We just saw what uncertainty looked like over a full season.

That brings us to the possibility that Manning has already played his final game in a Colts uniform. Per the radio interview, Jim Irsay is sticking to his guns that he will not trade Manning. He may be open to releasing him, though.

While it makes no sense not to get some youthful talent for a player that is a legend in the league, the worse crime would be for Manning to be released like he were just another player.

This is not just another player, but one that all budding quarterbacks look up to. He epitomizes success and consistency, and he may be thrown out with little fanfare.

The celebratory ending where happy tears are shed will not take place. Rather, Manning will most likely be forced out to make room for the new kid. It’s not shocking, this is a business after all.

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Rumors have been floating that the end of the Peyton Manning era in Indy is far closer than most would like. Reggie Hayes of The Boston Herald reports owner Jim Irsay is not completely sold on putting someone like Andrew Luck on the bench. 

That could mean that Manning may be on his way out. That brings us to an interview that Manning’s father Archie had with Yahoo Sports’ Criag Shemon this week. You can listen to the audio here. 

The two talk about a great many thing, but most importantly cover how Jim Irsay had stated he would never trade Peyton and would rather release him. On top of that, Archie put some doubt into the health of his son. 

I don’t know. I think he is working real hard. Peyton wants to play. Um, its just, uh, he’s got a good attitude about it and he’s just trying to get his health back. He is getting better and we’ll just have to wait and see.

This brings us to a team that would jump at the chance of working with the Colts‘ legendary quarterback. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports the New York Jets are not a bad option for Manning, especially if he is released. 

There is no reason that the Colts should let years of glory leave the field in Indianapolis without receiving anything back in return. 

They will get Luck. The question of who the next QB to lead the Colts into the future has been answered. 

It’s now clear that other teams would love to have a player like Manning, despite issues stemming from his lingering neck issue. 

If the Colts are flirting with life without Manning, it is more beneficial to nab a trade prior to the draft to infuse this franchise with youth. It will be hard to see Manning on another team, but the day he would leave was going to come anyway. 

The Colts have to get something when you consider they have one of the greatest quarterbacks in history as a trade chip. To lose that for nothing would be irresponsible. 

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