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The Colts Outperformed Draft Expectations and Other AFC South Must-Reads
Posted By Nate Dunlevy On January 30, 2013 @ 8:03 am In Colts News | No Comments
When it comes to analyzing the NFL  draft, most of the bad analysis stems from a simple, obvious mistake. Draft position matters.
Tony Villiotti of the National Football Post  ranked teams by draft quality and found that one team in the AFC South has consistently out-performed reasonable draft expectations over the past 10 and five years.
The Indianapolis Colts .
Despite ranking toward the bottom of league in expected draft production, Villiotti’s metrics say the Colts have done better in the selection of players than could have been expected.
While many fans groused about the apparent lack of high-impact players from the draft during the latter half of the tenure of Bill Polian, the Colts actually have done fairly well considering what they had to work with.
On the 10-year track, the Colts ranked 13th in draft production. That sounds mediocre, but they should have finished 20th.
On the five-year track, the Colts ranked 19th, but should have finished 23rd.
The other teams in the AFC South mostly underperformed their rankings.
Smart fans and analysts will be realistic about the draft. Indianapolis took home a huge haul last year, but had favorable draft position to work with.
In 2013, they’ll be back to drafting at the back half of the first round and have already traded away several picks.
Two years from now, the foolish fan will likely complain about the relative lack of talent to come to the team from this draft.
The educated will simply realize that the talent pool in the NFL draft falls off sharply after 15 or so picks, and it’s very difficult to land a Pro Bowl player if you don’t draft in the top half of the draft.
Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com  looks back on things he wrote before the season.
Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats  says clutch play is not persistent.
Houston Texans 
Rivers McCown of Battle Red Blog  rehashes his shadow draft.
Kuharsky says  the Colts need corners.
Tennessee Titans 
Titansonline.com says Michael Griffin participated in a program to give food to hungry kids.
Jacksonville Jaguars 
John Oehser of Jaguars.com  has five key questions about the Jags.
Read more Indianapolis Colts  news on BleacherReport.com
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URLs in this post:
 NFL: http://bleacherreport.com/nfl
 National Football Post: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Whos-been-doing-the-best-job-of-drafting.html
 Indianapolis Colts: http://bleacherreport.com/indianapolis-colts
 ESPN.com: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/46837/a-look-back-at-preseason-story-lines
 Advanced NFL Stats: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/01/clutch-persistence.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
 Houston Texans: http://bleacherreport.com/houston-texans
 Battle Red Blog: http://www.battleredblog.com/2013/1/29/3923632/2011-shadow-draft-in-review
 Kuharsky says: http://espn.go.com/blog/afcsouth/post/_/id/46832/on-the-colts-need-at-corner
 Tennessee Titans: http://bleacherreport.com/tennessee-titans
 Titansonline.com : http://www.titansonline.com/news/article-1/Michael-Griffin-Teams-with-Papa-Johns-to-Raise-Over-8000-for-Sacks-4-Kids/3876dc74-5ef8-44a5-b50c-2def7b37c8d7
 Jacksonville Jaguars: http://bleacherreport.com/jacksonville-jaguars
 Jaguars.com: http://www.jaguars.com/news/article-JaguarsNews/Five-key-questions/d0173de8-0c25-4461-98eb-a6a23659327f
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