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Jaguars vs. Colts: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

Posted By Darin Pike On September 21, 2012 @ 7:00 am In Colts News | No Comments

The Jacksonville Jaguars [1] visit the Indianapolis Colts [2] in a matchup of two teams that hope their young quarterbacks can deliver them from the bottom of the AFC South. Blaine Gabbert and Andrew Luck have each had one solid game this season and one to learn from.

Fans shouldn’t get their hopes built up too much, as both passers delivered their strong performances against the Minnesota Vikings [3]. They each threw for two touchdowns and posted a QB Rating above 95 in the first two weeks.

A loss by the Jaguars would mean an 0-3 start to the season and likely lead to further attendance issues. The fanbase has grown weary of waiting for a winning season, something they haven’t seen since the team’s 2007 playoff appearance.

The Colts could get to a surprising 2-1 with a home win and look to build momentum as they head toward their Week 4 bye.

 

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

When: September 23, 1 p.m. ET

TV: CBS (Game was sold out and will be aired in Indianapolis and Jacksonville markets)

Live Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket [4]Audio Pass [5] (Pay Services)

Radio: WOKV 106.5 FM, Jacksonville (full list [6]) and WFNI 1070 AM, Indianapolis (full list [7])

Spread: Colts -3, Over/Under at 43 (via Bovada)

 

While not condoning or condemning gambling, I would take the Colts and give up the points in this game. Jacksonville has a much better rushing attack, but both offenses have issues headed into this game. 

Jacksonville’s lack of a passing threat will allow the Colts to approach Maurice Jones-Drew similar to how they bottled up Adrian Peterson [8] and Matt Forte [9] the first two weeks.

Defense was the strength of the Jaguars last season, but they’ve surrendered 53 points in their first two games. The Colts won’t likely keep pace with what the Houston Texans [10] posted, but they will be able to score enough to stay ahead of the Jaguars. 

I expect this be a low-scoring game, making the under a tempting bet.

 

Injury Report (via NFL.com [11] and CBSSports.com [12])

Jacksonville

POS

Practice Status

Cameron Bradfield

T

Did Not Participate

George Selvie

DE

Did Not Participate

Daryl Smith

LB

Did Not Participate

Rashad Jennings

RB

Did Not Participate

Derek Cox

CB

Limited Participation

Blaine Gabbert

QB

Full Participation

Austen Lane

DE

Limited Participation

Eben Britton

G

Did Not Participate

 

 

 

Indianapolis

POS

Practice Status

Winston Justice

T

Full Participation

Austin Collie

WR

Full Participation

Joe Reitz

G

Did Not Participate

Cory Redding

DE

Limited Participation

Pat Angerer

LB

Did Not Participate

Dwight Freeney

LB

Did Not Participate

Samson Satele

C

Did Not Participate

 

Fantasy Impact

Owners that are spending much time watching this contest to check up on fantasy players are likely struggling.

Jones-Drew is one player that could make a big dent in a fantasy roster this weekend. He feasted on the Colts last season with 283 yards. He averages over 100 yards per game against Indianapolis and has nine touchdowns in 12 games.

The Colts are playing much better run defense in 2012 and should keep Jones-Drew from going crazy this weekend. He should have close to 100 yards and may find the end zone.

Jacksonville has been suspect on defense. They didn’t give up much through the air against the Texans, but Houston didn’t need to throw the ball. Percy Harvin had some success in Week 1.

Austin Collie is day-to-day and is expected to play on Sunday, but he needs time to work his way back into the offense. He’s likely to lose some snaps to Donnie Avery, who has stepped in and played well.

Reggie Wayne is the Colts’ leading receiver and can expect to be targeted early and often. He’s the only Colt receiver that is worth a start on Sunday, largely because of issues on the offensive line.

 

Keys to the win

I’m not buying into Gabbert or Luck being ready for prime time just yet. The Vikings had defensive issues in 2011 and continue to struggle this season. 

I’m sure one, if not both, of these quarterbacks will have a good game against a quality defense this season. They haven’t yet, though, and I don’t expect it to happen this weekend.

The key in this game is the Indianapolis offensive line. They were without two starters last week and now Satele could miss this weekend’s game. He’s a big loss from the middle of their line.

If the offensive line can’t protect Luck, it will be a long day for the home fans. Indianapolis hasn’t mounted a rushing attack behind Donald Brown, and that isn’t likely to change this weekend.

I expect the Colt offensive line to do just enough to give Luck time to move and throw.

 

Prediction

This could change based on the status of the offensive line, but I’m assuming the Colts will be without Satele an Reitz. They already have issues with their ground game, and they’ve had breakdowns in pass protection. 

Jacksonville hasn’t had much of a pass-rush this season, though. They also have offensive line issues of their own, and Indianapolis has been able to find the quarterback in the first two games.

Indianapolis 20, Jacksonville 13

Read more Indianapolis Colts [2] news on BleacherReport.com


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URLs in this post:

[1] Jacksonville Jaguars: http://bleacherreport.com/jacksonville-jaguars

[2] Indianapolis Colts: http://bleacherreport.com/indianapolis-colts

[3] Minnesota Vikings: http://bleacherreport.com/minnesota-vikings

[4] NFL Sunday Ticket: http://www.directv.com/DTVAPP/content/sports/nfl

[5] Audio Pass: https://audiopass.nfl.com/nflap/secure/packages?ttv=0&ttp=2&icampaign=Prod_AP_Nav&cvsorc=Homepage.AP.GP_Nav

[6] full list: http://tunein.com/radio/stations/Jacksonville-Jaguars-Radio-Stations-a37469/

[7] full list: http://tunein.com/radio/stations/Indianapolis-Colts-Radio-Stations-a37468/

[8] Adrian Peterson: http://bleacherreport.com/adrian-peterson

[9] Matt Forte: http://bleacherreport.com/matt-forte

[10] Houston Texans: http://bleacherreport.com/houston-texans

[11] NFL.com: http://www.nfl.com/injuries

[12] CBSSports.com: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/injuries

[13] bit.ly/VhERy5: http://t.co/xfdrRUPK

[14] September 20, 2012: https://twitter.com/Colts_Insider/status/248883121855029248

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